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• Current Situation and Warnings Regarding Taiwan's Low Birthrate Issue:

  • The low birthrate is an unavoidable national security crisis for Taiwan.
  • In 2025, the number of newborns will officially fall below the 100,000 mark, entering a demographic collapse phase (0:17).
  • Taiwan is the fastest-aging country in the world, with the proportion of its elderly population soaring from 14% to 20% in just seven years (1:10).
  • Taiwan's population decreases by an average of 277 people per day (2:38).

• Shortcomings of the Government's Current Low Birthrate Policies:

  • The government primarily relies on "cash handout" policies such as childbirth allowances and childcare subsidies, increasing them year by year (1:29).
  • These "cold figures" and isolated subsidies cannot alleviate the practical fatigue of parents' daily lives, nor can they provide the "sense of security" that younger generations need to raise children (0:22, 1:34, 2:56, 3:31).
  • There is a significant gap between the government's long-standing policy logic and the true pulse of society (3:55).

• Discussion and Challenges of Taipei City's "Parenting Work Hour Reduction Program":

  • Taipei City is promoting the "Parenting Work Hour Reduction Program," which began a trial run in March. It allows parents with children under 12 to reduce their daily working hours by one hour, with the city government subsidizing 80% of the enterprise's salary (1:53).
  • Supporters' View: This policy addresses a core need, allowing parents to pick up their children earlier and have dinner together as a family; one hour of flexibility is extremely valuable (2:17).
  • Opponents and Doubts:
    • If corporate operating models are not adjusted, the reduced workload of parents might be shifted to unmarried or childless colleagues (2:27).
    • Public opinion questions, "The policy's intentions are good, but who dares to apply?" highlighting the pain point of Taiwan's high-pressure workplace culture (2:39).
    • A single policy incentive is insufficient to reverse the younger generation's overall assessment of future risks (2:56).

• Lai Ching-te's Views on the Low Birthrate Issue and Their Shortcomings:

  • President-elect Lai Ching-te (賴清德) once proposed two major solutions to the low birthrate:
    1. Increasing income for young people: Through sustained economic development driven by investment in Taiwan and increased job opportunities, leading to higher labor costs (4:13).
    2. Industrial upgrading and transformation: Promoting the "5+2 Industries" and "Six Core Strategic Industries" to develop high-tech industries, thereby increasing wages and driving overall salary growth (4:29).
  • Critique: Despite overall economic growth, nearly 80% of young people in Taiwan experience "felt poverty" (5:04). The average salary promoted by the government conceals the harsh reality that most people earn a median salary far below the average (5:31). His economic solutions show a discrepancy with social reality.

• Deep-Seated Structural Causes of Taiwan's Low Birthrate:

  • Accompanying phenomena of social progress: The popularization of higher education, economic and intellectual independence of women, and the younger generation's pursuit of diverse self-fulfillment are irreversible trends of the era and signs of social maturity (3:11).
  • Lagging social systems: Taiwan's current social systems lag far behind these evolving values (3:25).
  • High working hours and overwork: Taiwan is an "island of overwork with high working hours," ranking fifth globally in average working hours in 2015. Young people are exhausted simply trying to survive, with no energy left to manage their lives (5:50).
  • Entrenched wealth gap: The wealthiest 10% of the population controls over 60% of the wealth, and social mobility is stagnant, causing many young people to lose hope of changing their future through effort (6:01).
  • Wage disparity and cost of living pressure: Increases in the minimum wage can never keep pace with rising housing prices, commodity prices, and the true rate of inflation (6:12).
  • Child-rearing costs and risks borne solely by families: Society has almost entirely placed the high costs (housing prices, childcare, working hours, inflation) and immense risks of raising the next generation on young families to bear alone (6:27).
  • The contradictory logic of the government over the past eight years, which "desired to enjoy the economic benefits of high housing prices and exploit labor for impressive figures, yet hoped for young people to bear the heavy burden of childbirth," has become completely unfeasible (9:20).

• South Korea's Successful Experience in Reversing Birthrate and Its Implications:

  • Shared Predicament: Taiwan and South Korea have long faced highly similar structural challenges such as long working hours, high housing prices, and high inflation (7:13).
  • South Korea's Transformation: In 2025, Taiwan will become the country with the lowest birthrate globally. South Korea's birthrate has rebounded for two consecutive years, with its total fertility rate reaching 0.8 and marriage rates increasing by 8.1%, indicating the effectiveness of its policies (7:26, 7:41).
  • South Korea's Key to Success Lies in Multi-pronged Structural Reforms:
    • Flexible working hours: Piloting a "2.5-day weekend" (half-day work on Fridays), with government agencies and 67 small and medium-sized enterprises already participating (7:58).
    • Extended parental leave and wage replacement rate: Systematically extending maternity leave duration and wage replacement rates (8:17).
    • Encouraging male participation in childcare: Men are granted 20 days of paternity leave and half a year of full-paid parental leave. The number of men applying for parental leave has increased from 4.5% in 2015 to over 30% by the end of 2024, loosening the traditional workplace culture that "child-rearing is a woman's responsibility" (8:20, 8:32).
    • Housing justice linked to fertility policies: Providing substantial support from the housing aspect, for instance, the Busan City government launched a program where having one child grants free residence in government-leased housing for 20 years, and having two children grants free residence for life (8:38, 8:52).
  • Implication: Money and subsidies can only provide a push; what truly enables the younger generation to feel secure in starting a family are fundamental changes in societal values and workplace structures (9:32, 9:37).

• Expectations and Direction for Taiwan's Future:

  • The low birthrate might no longer be a problem that can be completely reversed or solved (9:50).
  • The key lies in establishing social systems, industrial structures, and welfare systems that can firmly support an "inverted triangle Taiwan" (9:56).
  • The low birthrate is not just about whether or not to have children; it concerns the future living environment of every generation (10:04).
  • Instead of being anxious about how to increase birth rates, it is better to deeply consider how to build a Taiwan where every generation can still live well, even if the population decreases, and what fundamental changes the government and society should make (10:11, 10:22).