The arguments regarding Taiwan's declining birth rate are summarized as follows:

• Low Birth Rate and Surpassed by Pet Registrations:

  • Taiwan's birth rate ranks among the lowest globally.
  • Since 2020, Taiwan's population has experienced negative growth, with deaths outnumbering births.
  • In 2023, there were approximately 135,000 newborns, while registered pets ("fur babies") numbered around 230,000, indicating that pet registrations have surpassed the number of newborns.
  • Taiwan's total fertility rate is projected to fall to 0.87 by 2025, far below the 2.1 required for population replacement. A number less than 1 also implies that some women will not have any children in their lifetime.

• Low Birth Rate Not Due to "Excessive Advancement" or "Youth Selfishness":

  • Refuting claims such as "developed countries don't have children," "young people pursue self-actualization," or "afraid of hardship and only want to enjoy life," the article points out that Taiwan's low birth rate is not due to the country's advancement or individual choices.
  • The low birth rates in developed countries (e.g., Germany, Nordic welfare states) are based on the premise that "one can live well even if they choose not to have children," whereas in Taiwan, "having children means lowering one's entire life expectations."

• Structural Problems Lead to "Daring Not to Have Children":

  • Taiwan's low birth rate is a structural outcome of "low wages, high cost of living, high housing prices, and low certainty," rather than an issue of personal willingness.
  • Under the current circumstances, dating, marriage, and having children have become high-risk contracts spanning two to three decades.

• Economic Factors Affecting Fertility Intentions:

  • Low Wages and Income Inequality:
    • GDP and average salaries might be skewed upwards by high-income earners, failing to accurately reflect the economic conditions of the majority.
    • Taiwan's wage growth (2.5 times increase) is significantly lower than South Korea's (6.5 times increase).
    • Wealthy individuals accumulate substantial wealth, but the birth rate cannot be raised by a few rich people, nor can the rich produce 100 children.
    • There is a phenomenon in society of "letting a small portion of people get rich first," but the wealthy might take their money and have children abroad, which does not solve the domestic birth rate problem.
    • In Taiwan, the risks of having children are borne by individuals, but the rewards are not enjoyed by them.
    • When labor compensation in society consistently fails to keep pace with asset prices (such as housing prices, cost of living, stock market), the majority become providers of cash flow for a small asset-owning class, with the meaning of life being to enrich the top 1%.
  • High Cost of Living:
    • Prices rise rapidly and do not fall back. For instance, once egg prices increase, they never revert even if the underlying issues are resolved.
    • Even when international raw material prices continuously decline, Taiwan still uses raw materials as an excuse to raise prices.
    • Fresh Milk Price Issue: Taiwan's fresh milk prices are the second highest in the world, approaching NT$100 per liter, far exceeding Europe and America (NT$20-30) and Japan (NT$50+), yet wages are only one-third of those in Europe and America. This means Taiwanese people can only buy two liters of milk with one hour of work, while Australians can buy 20 liters.
    • Fresh milk in Taiwan is defined as a "luxury commodity." Its price does not reflect supply and demand or cost, but rather tests consumer tolerance. This impacts the entire dairy product industry chain (fresh milk tea, coffee, snacks, desserts, infant formula, etc.), making infant formula prohibitively expensive.
    • Seafood Price and Quality Issues: Taiwan's seafood CPI has quadrupled in over 30 years. Exorbitant prices lead to compromised product content. For example, "cod" is actually halibut, "takoyaki" is actually squid, "Spanish mackerel" is actually swordfish, and "shark" is actually tilapia.
    • This phenomenon of "substituting inferior goods for superior ones" is a widespread economic problem, not an issue with individual vendors. Consumers can no longer afford the "authentic versions," and vendors would be unable to operate if they provided genuine ingredients.
    • Society has become accustomed to replacing genuine quality with labels, names, and marketing rhetoric, to the extent that questioning authenticity is considered odd.

• High Uncertainty About the Future:

  • Young people's relationships have shifted from "planning a future together" to "bearing risks together."
  • The lack of high certainty regarding cash flow for the next 20 years makes it difficult for young people to plan long-term relationships (marriage, childbearing).
  • Society has an extremely low "error tolerance" and lacks a safety net. The cost of a single failure can lead to decades of being unable to recover.
  • A survey by the American Pew Research Center shows that only 15% of young people in Taiwan rank "family" as their top priority in life, the lowest among 17 developed countries. This reflects that, under conditions of income, housing prices, and future uncertainty, family is no longer the preferred blueprint for life.
  • Not marrying and not having children is a rational choice by young people based on risk management, refusing to continue investing in a system where "the risks are on oneself, but the rewards are not."

• Education and Information Gap:

  • The rising knowledge level and international information flow among Taiwanese people enable them to perceive that Taiwan's "income is at the level of developing countries, while its cost of living is at the standard of developed countries."
  • Taiwan generally faces the dilemma of upgraded cognition but material conditions stuck in a secondary stage. People know how to pursue a high-quality life, but the real economy cannot support it.
  • Although education is more widespread than in the United States, with a high proportion of university graduates, this has not improved the current situation of low wages and high cost of living.

• Policy Issues:

  • The government has long suppressed the New Taiwan Dollar, almost exclusively for the benefit of exports.
  • Taiwan's low wages and high cost of living are dubbed "Taiwan Sickness" by The Economist.
  • Issues such as high housing prices, exorbitant fresh milk prices, and the cost of infant formula make it difficult for new parents to cope.

• The "Fur Baby" Phenomenon Reflects Responsibility Towards "Real Children":

  • Young people choosing to raise "fur babies," with pet registrations even surpassing newborns, is because they are "choosing to be responsible for children for the first time," by not bringing the next generation into this structure fraught with uncertainty.
  • The poor's determination not to have children is a "silent but rational exit mechanism."